Session O-3H
Measuring Impacts of Public Policies: Taxes, Fiscal Policy, Trade, Tourism, and Education
3:30 PM to 5:00 PM | MGH 284 | Moderated by George Lovell
- Presenter
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- Jack Clark, Senior, Political Science (Political Economy)
- Mentor
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- Rebecca Thorpe, Political Science
- Session
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- MGH 284
- 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM
The Great Recession was one of the most devastating economic downturns experienced in the United States since the Great Depression. However, the rate at which states recovered from the crisis varied drastically across the country, with some states recovering in less than a year while others languished for over five years. While many previous scholars have explored the structural, demographic, fiscal, and other conditions of states leading into the Great Recession and their impact on recovery, this paper explores the impact of a variety of state fiscal policy decisions while actively in the recession and their impact on economic recovery. To conduct this study, I examine the relationship between the change in several state fiscal policy indicators – including tax, expenditure, and budget indicators – from the start of the recession to the trough, and the rate of recovery measured in the number of months for the state to recover fully from the recession. I conduct a multivariate regression analysis to determine the relationship between my selected indicators and the rate of recovery while controlling for various factors that previous scholars have identified as having a potential impact on recovery, including state economic composition, relative federal stimulus, and more. I expect to find a positive relationship between general increases in tax revenue, increases in expenditures on welfare, and a more equal ratio of revenue to spending and a faster recovery (a lower number of months to recovery). The findings of this study will contribute to informing improved strategies for state policymakers as they navigate fiscal policy decisions during future recessions.
- Presenter
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- Xutong Deng, Senior, Economics UW Honors Program
- Mentor
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- Yael Jacobs, Economics
- Session
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- MGH 284
- 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM
This thesis discusses the impact of the Washington State Ferry (WSF). It provides the background of Washington State Ferry since COVID-19 and talks about the challenges that Washington State Ferry faced. Washington State Ferries are the primary public transportation between the San Juan Islands and Anacortes. The disruption of Washington State Ferries challenges San Juan Island's local economy. The paper aims to find how Washington State Ferries affects local short-term tourism by measuring tax revenue, business sales, and mobility. It uses regression models to study how the number of WSF cancellations, average delay times, ridership, and COVID-19 affect local businesses. The study compares the period before, through, and post-COVID-19 to prevent bias and to find out the actual impact of WSF. In conclusion, the research allows people to understand the importance of public transportation and provides some possible reasons for changes in the local economy.
- Presenter
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- Helen Li, Senior, Economics, Dance
- Mentor
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- Dennis O'Dea, Economics
- Session
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- MGH 284
- 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM
This paper quantifies the impact on the South Korean Cultural Entertainment Industry (CEI) after China's "Korea Limitation Order". In November 2016, Beijing restricted South Korean artists to hold concerts and the broadcast of South Korean TV dramas, also banned cooperation between the two countries in the entertainments industries. This paper examines the effect did this had on exports of cultural products from Korea, and how Korea was able to adjust to this Geopolitical shock. I examine exports from Korea, to China, Japan, and the United States: Data from Cultural Entertainment Industry Products Exports, tangible or intangible goods that can create economic added value, such as Korean music and Filming Industries, and South Korea inbound foreign tourism statistics during 2011-2019 were collected. Deriving the deviation from an estimated autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model specification of exports from Korea after the “Korea Limitation Order,” in Difference-in-Difference (DID) Model, I found that South Korea's tourism industry has been particularly affected, with the most significant decline compared to the other two countries. At the same time, in the tourism industry, the substitution effect of Japanese market for the Chinese market is clear to see. The film and broadcasting industries have seen similar but less dramatic declines than tourism industry. There is no evidence that sectors of the cultural industry that are not included in this restriction category such as cartoon industry, are impacted by this shock.
- Presenter
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- Martin J. (Martin) Nikolov, Junior, Law, Economics & Public Policy (Bothell)
- Mentor
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- Alejandro Francetich, Economics, UW Bothell School of Business
- Session
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- MGH 284
- 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM
In my research, I aim to analyze the impact certain tax global policies have on economic development depending on the countries' initial industrialization level. Using the development indicators published by the World Bank, among other sources, I will assess both a countries industrialization level and the impact of the tax policies. My research methods will combine theoretical economic frameworks with global, macroeconomic, and survey data. My unique approach will consist of statistical and historical data, looking into a variety of expert fields like health and education to assess the country. Thus, this paper will take an interdisciplinary approach to assessing economic conditions and policy impacts. Participating in this research will contribute to my transformative education by analyzing real world data and deriving policy recommendations. My work aims to advance our understanding of how tax policies impact both local and global development, with the ultimate goal of contributing to the design of more effective targeted tax policy. In this research, I expect one of two findings. Global tax policies that work well in industrialized nations work similarly or equally well in developing countries. Global tax policies that work well in industrialized nations fail to achieve the same results in developing nations. This concludes that tax policy recommendations have to be adjusted according to the industrialization level of the country.
- Presenter
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- Hao Xu, Senior, Economics UW Honors Program
- Mentor
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- Fabio Ghironi, Economics
- Session
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- MGH 284
- 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM
This study explores the impact of recent exchange rate fluctuations between China and the United States on Washington state agricultural exports to China. The substantial change in exchange rates, with the U.S. dollar appreciating against the Chinese yuan, has the potential to significantly affect Washington's agricultural exports to China. Given that almost one-third of the state's agricultural products are exported, with a substantial portion heading to Asian markets, particularly China, understanding the implications of exchange rate changes for Washington farmers is crucial. Therefore, this research also aims to investigate the effects of changes in the yuan/dollar exchange rate on the average income of Washington farmers and the prices of top agricultural commodities in the state. I analyze these effects by collecting data and constructing and estimating an empirical model. The results can provide valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders involved in the agricultural trade relationship between Washington and China.
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